Are economists the new astrologers?

A controversial article has been circulating through the financial news for the past year or so that equates economists with astrologers because, its author argues, both are pseudosciences.  Ironically, the argument given is that economists were not able to predict the 2008 economic crash:

The failure of the field to predict the 2008 crisis has … been well-documented. In 2003, for example, only five years before the Great Recession, the Nobel Laureate Robert E Lucas Jr told the American Economic Association that ‘macroeconomics […] has succeeded: its central problem of depression prevention has been solved’.

The irony is that astrologers DID predict the 2008 crisis, and were not surprised when it occurred.  Unfortunately though, while astrology can reveal the general climate of what the future may bring, there is no way to predict specific events either in our personal lives or in a global economy. Since the 2008 crisis both economists AND astrologers have predicted a correction, or a crash – yet the global economic condition continues to expand.

I like this quote from Paul Krugman in the article cited above:

‘As I see it,’ he wrote, ‘the economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth.’ Krugman named economists’ ‘desire… to show off their mathematical prowess’ as the ‘central cause of the profession’s failure’.

Math is an abstraction, but can it be used to predict human behavior?  I think astrologers often make the same mistake.  We have these marvelous symbols, “beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics,”  and now an abundance of ancient techniques to predict the future.  And yes, a few times those techniques for prediction have succeeded – but so will flipping a coin 50% of the time.

When astrology […]

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By |2018-09-03T09:41:10-04:00September 3rd, 2018|Money and markets, Predictions|0 Comments

An astrological look at the US economy

financial astrologyA dear friend of mine, who shall remain nameless but I’m sure she’s not alone, been frightened by the dire predictions of another astrologer friend of hers who has predicted that the US economy will collapse in 2014 and 2015.  Contrarian that I am, I have a different view.

Yesterday’s post looked back at 2010 to see how we got to the place where we currently find ourselves.  Economists say now that we entered the global recession in December 2007 which was just before Pluto entered Capricorn in January 2008, and that the global recession actually ended in June of 2009.  The summer of 2009 may have been the trough, but it took several years to pull our way out of the recession and growth is only now just beginning to occur.

Pluto’s entry into Capricorn created the contraction that ended the previous riot of expansion that occurred when Pluto moved through Sagittarius, and once Uranus began aspecting Pluto in 2011 the world began to recover of the shock of the global collapse and begin the process of looking with new eyes (Uranus) towards rebuilding and transformation (Pluto).  By the time the square between Uranus and Pluto began in 2012, the economy was well on its way to recovery.

During this time the US has been particularly hard-hit.  Partly this is because with Sagittarius rising in the Sibley chart that is commonly used for the US, Americans tend to be overly optimistic in general, and consequently were very susceptible to the absolute faith (another hallmark of Sagittarius) that was required for the giant balloon that was the pre-2008 economy.  (Read more about America’s love of money in my earlier post here.)

I’m not sure why my friend’s financial […]

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By |2014-04-04T06:12:58-04:00April 4th, 2014|Money and markets|2 Comments
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